BTO ballot odds
BetaYour realistic timeline to keys — modeled from HDB's published application rates, your applicant scheme, and the ballot-chance rules, compounded across the exercises you'd actually enter.
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Per-ballot odds by project (June 2026 demand, 4-room, your profile)
| Project | Class | Demand | Your odds / ballot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kebun Baru BreezeAng Mo Kiobest odds | Plus | 1.3× | >90% | |
| Kebun Baru RidgeAng Mo Kio | Plus | 1.3× | >90% | |
| Sembawang PorticoSembawang | Standard | 0.6× | >90% | |
| Sembawang BrookSembawang | Standard | 0.6× | >90% | |
| Berlayar RiseBukit Merah | Prime | 3.2× | 55% | |
| Woodgrove AcresWoodlands | Standard | 3.9× | 52% | |
| Lakeview CascadiaBishan | Prime | 3.7× | 48% |
Your realistic timeline — applying to Plus-demand launches like Kebun Baru Breeze, every exercise (~3/year)
~0.3 yr
to 50% chance of a successful ballot (1 attempts)
~0.3 yr
to 80% chance (1 attempts)
~4.7 yr
realistic keys-in-hand (median ballot + ~4.3 yr construction)
Green: cumulative odds you've secured a flat. Dashed plum: per-ballot odds — they rise as failed attempts earn extra ballot chances.
How we model it (and what it can't know)
Odds per ballot ≈ (flats ÷ applicants) × (your ballot chances ÷ pool average of ~2.3) × a quota factor. Application rates are HDB's published first-timer rates from the latest exercise (June 2026); the pool for 2-room Flexi is first-timer singles.
- First-timers start with 2 ballot chances; every application after 2 failed Standard attempts earns +1.
- FT(PMC) — families with a child aged 18 or below, or married couples both aged 40 or below, never having owned — start with 3 chances, get up to 40% of BTO supply set aside, and first priority on 4-room-and-smaller Standard flats.
- Second-timers compete for a small quota — modeled at roughly 15% effective supply.
- The timeline assumes you enter every exercise (~3 a year) at similar demand levels.
HDB doesn't publish the ballot algorithm; this is a planning approximation, not an official probability. Demand shifts by exercise — Prime projects routinely draw 4–8× first-timer rates. Sources: HDB balloting process & MyNiceHome priority-schemes guide.
Ballot questions, answered straight
Do more ballot chances really matter?
Yes — the ballot is a weighted lottery for queue positions, so 3 chances vs the pool average of ~2.3 is a ~30% edge per exercise. It compounds: failed first-timer applications earn +1 chance each after two Standard-flat failures, which is why persistent applicants' odds climb visibly on our timeline chart.
Should I apply for a hot project or an undersubscribed one?
That's the real decision this page quantifies. A Prime launch at 4x demand means roughly a coin flip even with FT(PMC) chances; an undersubscribed Standard project is near-certain. If your priority is keys, chase the low application rates — Sembawang-type projects in our table. If it's the location, accept the longer expected timeline the chart shows.
What is FT(PMC) and do I qualify?
First-Timer (Parents & Married Couples): families with a Singapore Citizen child aged 18 or below, or married couples where both are 40 or below — who've never owned property and haven't booked a flat in 5 years. You get 3 ballot chances, up to 40% of BTO supply set aside, and first priority on 4-room-and-smaller Standard flats. It's the single biggest odds boost HDB offers.
Does applying as a couple double our chances?
No — one application per household per exercise. Chances come from your applicant category and failure history, not from how many of you sign the form. Applying under both names matters for eligibility and financing, not for the ballot.
If I get a queue number, am I guaranteed a flat?
Only if it's within the supply. HDB typically issues queue numbers for ~300% of units; a number beyond the flat count is effectively a waitlist position that depends on those ahead dropping out. Our model counts only queue positions within supply as success — the honest definition.
Is resale really the alternative?
Financially it's a different trade: no ballot, no 3-5 year wait, full choice of location and floor — priced at market instead of subsidised. If your timeline to 50% ballot odds stretches past two years, compare what the same budget buys today on our estimate and browse pages before spending another year balloting.